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VVinv巍巍投资家携手CCFA加中金融协会经济及金融投资讲座成功举办 ... ...

2017-1-24 00:25| 发布者: admin| 查看: 202| 评论: 0

摘要: 1月20日晚,由VVinv巍巍投资家主办,CCFA加中金融协会协办的大型经济及金融话题讲座在多伦多大学圣乔治主校区顺利举行。活动主办及协办方用心准备的开年巨献,同时获得了活动赞助商海南航空和SavvyPro思睿贯通的大力 ...

1月20日晚,由VVinv巍巍投资家主办,CCFA加中金融协会协办的大型经济及金融话题讲座在多伦多大学圣乔治主校区顺利举行。活动主办及协办方用心准备的开年巨献,同时获得了活动赞助商海南航空和SavvyPro思睿贯通的大力支持,几方携手,一起带大家玩转全球经济。

在CCFA Young Professional VP 颜路阳先生鼓舞人心的发言之后,讲座随即拉开了序幕。

讲座当天恰逢特朗普宣誓就职美国总统的第一天,偌大的教室被前来学习听讲的各界人士挤得满满当当。本次讲座的主题在于宏观全球,并基于大局走势制定相应的投资策略,以保证财富增长的速度至少要不低于于货币贬值或资本缩水的速度。

坐拥25年中国及华尔街投资经验的叶老师首先从中国面临的几方挑战着眼,分析了川普上台后,美国与俄罗斯之间的关系可能产生的变化,提及了香港、台湾、缅甸、印度、日本、越南、新加坡、菲律宾、澳大利亚和委内瑞拉等国家和地区对中国经济可能形成的微妙影响,进而引出停滞的世界市场概念。(友情提示:本文所有内容仅供讨论,不构成投资建议,市场有风险,投资需谨慎。)

先说吸引了全世界目光的美国:川普上台,不少内阁成员都多少有些华尔街背景,首先暗示着新一轮集团利益的分配。川普所要执行的新政里包括贸易保护和减税等内容,向包括中国、北美自贸、欧元区在内的贸易伙伴征收高额关税和其他进口障碍,加上NAFTA(北美自由贸易协定)、TTIP(跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系)、TPP(跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协议)的重新谈判,短期内也许能促进市场和投资者信心,中期已极有可能带领美国经济逐渐走向孤立,长期而言,他一己之力无法扭转乾坤,全球化势在必行。好在川普继承了奥巴马留下的比较好的经济开局,只要他专注于强调美国事务,鼓励制造业回流,就会有利于美国经济的增长,并因此带动美元的持续强势。所以美联储主席耶伦明示或暗示的加息,在2017年预计会完成三至六次,美股也有可能如索罗斯所说发生“大风险、大危机、大重组”,尤其是当全球化或去全球化的结果和利益没有分享到中产阶级和工人阶级手里的时候。伴随着美联储进入加息周期,美元走强是必然趋势,而包括中国在内的各经济体的货币政策空间都将因此受到制约,货币政策流动性可能缩紧边际。


再看欧洲,若不是因为苹果公司在爱尔兰的利润拉动了爱尔兰国家GDP 26%的增长,欧洲去年GDP的增长都不可能是现在的1.6%,甚至有可能为负。加上脱欧、难民、民粹主义的抬头,更给欧洲的经济增长蒙上了一团迷雾。因此欧元体系是否存在瓦解风险的议题也被提上了台面。但综合看来,欧元瓦解是小概率事件,但欧元体系确实存在分崩离析的危险,但更大的可能是维持以德语区为主的小区域的货币一体化局面。

反观中国,从宏观经济的角度来看,人口所带来的红利越发稀薄,业已非常接近所谓的“低生育陷阱”;伴随着制造业的往外走和服务业,尤其是金融服务业的往里走,以及国有企业加杠杆和地方财政以及房地产税改革引发的冲突,中国经济更有可能“实打实”地通过稳健乃至紧缩,而非宽松的财政和货币政策来持续发力。2017极有可能成为中国的拐点,一方面,外汇储备逐年消耗的事实自不必说,市场预计人民币兑美元会稳定在1:7左右,偶尔可能破7奔向7.5;另一方面,三不政策下的证券市场很可能好于去年的整体表现(企业盈利难以大幅好转,大涨的可能性较小),呈现慢牛态势,在投资方向上应当着重自有盈利的中上游行业等。

其他经济体里值得更多关注的是印度,前阵子的钞票事件搅得人心惶惶,反腐和振兴经济的形势并不明朗,但可以明确的一点是印度的增速肯定低于中国,但印度的基金发展值得北美投资者们花更多时间。另外,世界范围内超过七成的资源类企业在加拿大的多伦多股票交易所TSX上市,对2017年资源股持乐观态度。原油对加币影响巨大,当原油价格保持在50-60美金每桶范围内时,投资的机会较多,其他价位只能投机。

在活动的问答互动环节,叶老师还一一回答了在场听众们关于俄罗斯和中东的基金投资机会、全球汽车制造行业走向、消费类等周期性行业形势、美国的经济周期、清洁能源、黄金投资等问题,叶老师以其丰富的背景知识和谦虚的讨论态度将他的看法娓娓道来,赢得听众的赞叹连连。

Speaker Bill Ye简介:

叶泓(Bill Ye),毕业于浙江大学,任西南财经大学客座教授。二十余年投资与交易经验,曾在多家大型投资管理公司担任基金经理,在中国证券报等大覆盖面期刊设有专栏,于中国人民银行培训中心讲授互联网金融、金融大数据应用和小微金融等课程。出版过关于波浪理论的书籍,著有《神秘的对冲基金》一书。目前在北美以对冲基金的管理和教育为主要工作方向,在中国以天使基金和投行业务为主要投资方向。


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